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Missed the last issue?
Here’s the part that got me thinking. Private label just hit a record 23.8% unit share, and store brands barely advertise. So how are shoppers finding them? My guess is a lot of people are typing something like “what’s a cheaper alternative to my favorite national brand that still tastes good?” into an AI tool and following whatever comes back. If that’s right, national brands are losing sales in conversations they can’t see. That’s the invisible lost sale…
The Store Photographer's Warning and What Are You Really Replacing?
I’m a fan of Neil Saunders’ store photos. If you follow him on LinkedIn, you’ve seen them too: the ones that shine a light on the mess retailers would rather you didn’t see. Casey and I call him our favorite store photographer. It’s entirely possible retailers may not love those photos as much as we do.
So when Neil sat down with Casey Golden and me in the podcast tent at RetailClub AI Festival, I expected stories about stores. What I got was a number that worries more people than any empty shelf. And it probably shouldn’t.
Neil is Managing Director of GlobalData Retail, and our latest Retail Transformers podcast episode is our live conversation from Huntington Beach.
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The number from his session.
The day before we recorded, Neil put up GlobalData’s scenarios for AI job cuts based on all the doom and gloom scenarios we’ve all been seeing in the media about job cuts due to AI investment.
One of the best case scenarios: 15 million US jobs lost.
Then he followed the paychecks.
Take that income out of the economy and overall consumer spending drops about 7 to 8%. Casey asked if that was billions. Trillions, Neil said. Over a trillion dollars gone from consumer spending.
The 2008 global financial crisis didn’t come close to that. And that’s the best case. His middle case is a 30% drop. Neil doesn’t like the phrase “retail apocalypse,” but I told him I don’t like it either, but that would qualify.
Why the smart move turns into a trap.
Here’s what makes it hard to accept these calculations and the AI job cuts premise they’re based on. For any one company, AI job cuts can be rational. Margins go up. Neil said as much.
If everyone cuts at the same time, revenue holds for a while, and then it doesn’t.
The demand your business was built to serve isn’t there anymore now that those consumers have lost their buying power, and the whole sector can slide into a loss. Neil called it a catch-22. He also said it isn’t necessarily what’s going to happen.
Nobody has thought it through to conclusion, and that’s his point.
Where AI in retail is earning its keep.
Don’t worry, this wasn’t a doom and gloom episode.
Neil’s advice for where to start with AI in retail is the win-win: AI that helps the retailer and the shopper at the same time.
His Best Buy example is my favorite. AI picks which store fills an online order, and it picks the store with extra stock that won’t sell in the next few days. The store that’s running low keeps its inventory. Fewer stockouts, fewer markdowns, more sales. Casey pointed out that retailers barely transfer stock between stores anymore, so most of that merchandise just sits until it’s marked down.
On the sales floor, the tools Neil likes are the ones an associate reaches for: take a photo of a display and ask if it matches the planogram, or look up a customer’s online order to find the right part. I’ve done the home version of that myself, snapping a photo of a part I couldn’t name and asking AI what it was.
Casey’s review of AI that talks in an associate’s ear took three words: “Get out of my ear.”
Chatbots got a mixed review too.
Neil says shoppers both love and hate them. They’re fine for “Where is my stuff?” and “What was my last order?” The moment a question gets more involved, shoppers want a person. Casey admitted the word chatbot gives her a visceral reaction.
Where I landed.
If your AI plan starts with AI job cuts, ask what you’re really replacing.
I said it on the show: you might be replacing your customers.
AI in retail is supposed to add to the experience, same as any technology. When the goal is replacement, you can end up with lower costs, fewer shoppers, and no new revenue.
My vote: fund the win-win projects first. They pay back on both sides of the counter, and they don’t shrink the market you sell into.
Watch, listen, subscribe.
🎙️ Season 2, Episode 11 of Retail Transformers: “15 Million AI Job Cuts? The Retail Reality Check”
Two things I’m leaving for the episode:
Neil explains the two reasons home improvement lags online and how AI fixes the second one at 13:11.
And Casey has advice for anyone about to cut staff, starting at 18:28. Hers is the part I’d send to every CFO.
Listen wherever you get podcasts or watch on our YouTube channel or Spotify.
Your turn.
If this one gave you a visceral reaction like Casey’s,, subscribe so the next one lands in your inbox and you don’t miss out.
Next on Retail Transformers: Alon Rotem of ThredUp returns to share some exciting news dropped during Shoptalk Fall. Hint - it involves one of our favorite, largely untapped, mediums… livestreaming!
Comment on this newsletter or join the conversation on LinkedIn! Your insights may help shape the topics we explore next.
Until next time! Stay sharp. Be Bold. And Transform Retail!
Sincerely,
Ricardo Belmar
The Retail Razor: Retail Transformers
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Retail Transformers is part of the Retail Razor Podcast Network, alongside The Retail Razor Show, Blade to Greatness, and Data Blades. Find us at RetailRazor on LinkedIn, Bluesky, Threads, and Instagram. For a full transcript of this episode, visit our retailrazor.com website!
3 of my favourite humans! Who else could segue from a dog eating Prada to a 30% drop in consumer spending? Excellent episode.